swag estimate in project management

Estimating the cost of a project happens well before the project work starts. New features will be discovered and added." Browse other questions tagged, Start here for a quick overview of the site, Detailed answers to any questions you might have, Discuss the workings and policies of this site. This form of estimate can make it difficult to manage customer expectations, a 15 day effort is very different from a 50 day effort, and the customer can green light a SWAG under the optimistic assumption. I support a large enterprise software project which frequently receives enhancement requests from our customer. Just keep in mind that the Swag Estimate is just an estimate. 542), How Intuit democratizes AI development across teams through reusability, We've added a "Necessary cookies only" option to the cookie consent popup. Its complex, thats all. You can consider decomposition and recomposition, estimation by analogy, proxy-based estimates, and expert judgement in groups to estimate the size to use as an input into COCOMO. This form of estimate can make it difficult to manage customer expectations, a 15 day effort is very different from a 50 day effort, and the customer can green light a SWAG under the optimistic assumption. I am a certified project manager (PMP) - Please let me know if you have any questions about project management that are not explained on this site! For those of you trying to figure out what this question has to do with T-shirts, coffee cups, swagger or curtains, the context here is ". For example, I can make a SWAG about upgrading a codebase from Python 2 to Python 3: Ive done this work myself a bunch, and observed many more porting projects, and so my intuitive guesses about a new codebase tend to be reasonably accurate. You're managing a project to build a new project management information system. What factors changed the Ukrainians' belief in the possibility of a full-scale invasion between Dec 2021 and Feb 2022? Topic 1: Project Costs How do you estimate project costs? Thanks for contributing an answer to Project Management Stack Exchange! ft. building and you know the average cost of constructing 1 sq. Is Koestler's The Sleepwalkers still well regarded? Sometimes the SWAG estimate is expected to be at the high end of a range. Remember its an estimate, not a commitment. The number of distinct words in a sentence. Why doesn't the federal government manage Sandia National Laboratories? Making statements based on opinion; back them up with references or personal experience. a rising tone, or a literal ? if this is in writing). The reality around the problem. This is the most time-consuming process to estimate costs in project management. AS part of conveying your TShirt size estimates, do highlight any high level assumptions so sponsor is clear on implications. Mostly because those jobs are about not forgetting to do something. Would the reflected sun's radiation melt ice in LEO? Really good agile practitioners use statistical methods. SWAGs can be accurate, but only under the right circumstances. Sometimes the SWAG estimate is expected to be at the high end of a range. Personally, I like to give the customer the best understanding of progress as I can. Connect and share knowledge within a single location that is structured and easy to search. The WAG is the most fundamental level of estimating and is commonly employed early in the project lifecycle when . Part of what people get wrong about this approach is they try to do it at an extremely fine-grained level. Add, say, 20% to the estimate to provide for such changes. moving from a monolith to microservices). In general, add 15% of the effort hours for project management. When someone asks, how long with that take? and an immediate answer springs to mind, thats the result of some very quick, often unconscious pattern-matching against your prior experience. switching programming languages or cloud providers), complex re-architectures (e.g. For example, imagine Im asked to get a Django apps availability up to 99.9% uptime. Define hard requirements and deliveries. As developers we are uncomfortable with giving numbers on such a limited foundation. That process generates the most realistic time estimates I've ever seen. But only some of them. Chapter 7 Project Cost Management MCQ multiple choice 31. which process involves developing an approximation of the costs of resources needed to complete Skip to document Ask an Expert Sign inRegister Sign inRegister Home Ask an ExpertNew My Library Discovery Institutions University of Massachusetts Lowell Silver Creek High School (Colorado) you're looking to contact me, Then you come up with a high-end estimate i.e. This estimate is typically made during the early stages of a project when there is still a lot of uncertainty about the scope and requirements. So whats happening isnt a guess: no, youre using a highly sophisticated neural network thats been trained on substantial prior experience1. Software Engineering Stack Exchange is a question and answer site for professionals, academics, and students working within the systems development life cycle. What are some tools or methods I can purchase to trace a water leak? These processes include resource planning and cost budgeting. Define . We have hand-crafted a 200-question-and-answer project management quiz based on PMBOK to help people pass the PMP exam. I think the categorization that you have outlined would help with the smaller enhancements, but we would be worse off with 20+ day enhancements as now the customer would have less context. Make design and feature choice recommendations that, if accepted, will save money from the high estimates. Provide a confidence measure along with your estimate to communicate to the person using the estimate the risk involved in using a single number to make a decision. This might be enough for a client to say "nope, not worth it". The cost of overhead includes the cost of office space, internet access, and any other indirect costs that may be associated with the project. Sometimes quality is non-negotiable, as in the case of company-wide SLAs/SLOs, or compliance requirements. Guesstimate is defined as an estimate made without using adequate or complete information, or, more strongly, as an estimate arrived at by guesswork or conjecture. My first #SKO with TrueLook Construction Cameras was certainly one for the books I learned so much as well as got to know the team even better, plus check Oh crap, you think, this is not going to be easy. For me (and most experienced software engineers), there are certain kinds of projects that trigger this feeling. Is there a more recent similar source? Words like maybe or I think or perhaps are useful, as is a questioning tone (e.g. . Simple problems lend themselves very well to SWAGs. You're now ready to make your estimates. Do It Anyway. in any specific time frame. In project management, there are three levels of estimating: WAG, SWAG, and "you bet your job on this figure" estimates. becoming your GO TO source for all your Land Rover Service or repair needs. Change requests are required when baselines are established and you have to make changes to them. Use other projects that you have done to compare with this one. Sometimes there are a few basic techniques to learn. As it is a rough estimate, it can be easily given by a specialist based on their expertise and previous perception of similar projects. Then I would tell someone something like this: And that might get told to the client like this: So we've looked briefly into doing feature X for you. The estimation should be more like a phase approach as development team know more about the customers. By clicking Accept all cookies, you agree Stack Exchange can store cookies on your device and disclose information in accordance with our Cookie Policy. Another example is when a platoon leader needs to estimate how long it will take his troops to march up a muddy hill when a downpour begins. It's good to see this recalculated often. Every sprint they look at what you delivered and decide if they're going to pay you for another one. Analogous EstimationC. Project work estimation has three components: the initial first cut, commonly known as a SWAG (scientific wild-ass guess), tracking the estimate against the actual numbers, and using the schedule . True Pert Chart Definition. What are the skills required to create a SWAG estimate? complete information, or, more strongly, as an estimate arrived at by This is actually the foundation of agile software. SWAG is a simple yet effective technique used in project management as a tool that helps to roughly estimate the cost, time, and resources required for a project . If you order a special airline meal (e.g. Q: Provide scenarios when it would be appropriate to provide ROM, budgeted, and final cost estimates A: Rough order of magnitude (ROM) estimates estimate project costs. Having put this into practice for a couple of years, I have some concerns: Are there any kind of standard practices, or tried and true methods for communicating SWAGs that can help us better manage customer expectations? In the industry, words like "astronomical amount," "revenue," and "conclusive" cost estimates are also utilized. The Project Manager is also responsible for monitoring technician performance and ensuring that services meet . One possible approach in such a scenario in project management is the use of Three Point Estimates. @candied_orange: That doesn't sound like a fixed-price contract to me, unless you're talking about several little fixed-price contracts. Phase N Revision Sample is as following: Usually the time frame could in line with each quarter pending on the deliver cycle of the team. Mostly this scares the hell out of the management. On large projects, keeping track of thousands of data points becomes impossible. We look forward to. Unanticipated difficulties are frequent. Although PERT FORMULA is more accurate than SWAG estimate, it can be more time-consuming. The swag technique can be used for a variety of different projects, from small tasks to large-scale initiatives. Three-Point EstimationD. Never let how you feel about time get compressed without saying what will be lost by doing that. Jul 2018 - Oct 20213 years 4 months. But if the estimate is important, if thered be a problem, even a minor one, if you were wrong, you need to follow up. The key point is to listen to those intuitive negative emotions. You work with the team to come up with an estimate of 27 weeks. Project Management. The best answers are voted up and rise to the top, Not the answer you're looking for? Complicated problems can sometimes be given a SWAG, but the bar for prior knowledge is higher. In practice, what Ive spent the last 1500 words describing happens in a heartbeat: someone asks hey, how long will that take?, you very quickly decide if its a safe enough situation to make a SWAG, and then you make the guess. An estimate is our best guess for what can be achieved and by when. Of course its also fair to push back and not provide an estimate if legitimately you feel you have very low confidence in the estimate you provide. Many come with fixed budgets: the team you have is the team you get; no new hires or contracts are going to be approved. In the project management world, a SWAG may not be better than nothing since a project manager must make sure that reliable information is available for an effort estimate; otherwise, the project plan may not be worth anything. Adjust the estimation settings as you desire. In other words: obviously, guesstimation is something between guess and estimate. Has nothing at all to do with the poorly defined, not yet understood problem. You have to rely more on intuition when you are doing guesstimate. In my experience this includes, high availability or performance requirements, increasing scale (traffic, data storage, etc) of more than a couple of orders of magnitude, complex technical transitions (e.g. Complex problems are ones like raising a child. Project organization, management and control Industry certifications (Amp, Bicsi, Corning, etc.) Now to the estimate itself. Thanks for providing this information +1. How to explain that it's hard to estimate the time required for a bigger software project? To a large degree making a (good) SWAG is an intuitive process, but Ive tried to unpack whats happening in that short moment and give some thoughts about when a SWAG is appropriate, and how to give one. Were still pattern matching, but now were noticing a certain kind of project that resists estimation, or a kind of project that is likely to go poorly. In that case, the team can create an estimate and might report it like this: "We estimate this project will take five months to complete, with a 50 percent confidence in the accuracy of that prediction. I can purchase to trace a water leak 20 % to the top, the! Point estimates estimate is expected to be at the high end of a full-scale between. Contract to me, unless you 're looking for baselines are established and know. That you have to make changes to them building and you have to rely on... Fine-Grained level the result of some very quick, often unconscious pattern-matching against your prior experience WAG is most... Level of estimating and is commonly employed early in the project Manager also! Formula is more accurate than SWAG estimate phase approach as development team more. High level assumptions so sponsor is clear on implications to trace a water leak re now ready to your... Is expected to be at the high estimates a phase approach as team... Do something before the project work starts for such changes case of company-wide SLAs/SLOs, or, strongly... 'Re talking about several little fixed-price contracts about the customers receives enhancement requests from our customer, will save from... Commonly employed early in the project work starts estimation should be more time-consuming and working... Result of some very quick, often unconscious pattern-matching against your prior.! For prior knowledge is higher about not forgetting to do it at an extremely fine-grained level different,. Techniques to learn the federal government manage Sandia National Laboratories in mind that the SWAG estimate is just estimate... Estimating the cost of constructing 1 sq a full-scale invasion between swag estimate in project management and! With references or personal experience estimate the time required for a client to say nope. You are doing guesstimate and is commonly employed early in the case company-wide! Within the systems development life cycle result of some very quick, unconscious! The customers a 200-question-and-answer project management different projects, keeping track of thousands of data points becomes.! Unless you 're looking for SWAG technique can be used for a to... Imagine Im asked to get a Django apps availability up to 99.9 % uptime up... Languages or cloud providers ), complex re-architectures ( e.g a range: project costs ( e.g more.. Unless you 're talking about several little fixed-price contracts mind that the estimate! Team know more about the customers an immediate answer springs to mind, thats the result of some quick... That take this might be enough for a bigger software project which frequently receives enhancement requests from our customer ;! Neural network thats been trained on substantial prior experience1 team know more about the customers little fixed-price contracts swag estimate in project management! Achieved and by when know more about the customers melt ice in LEO this one the effort for..., Corning, etc. to estimate costs in project management Stack Exchange that, if accepted, save... Monitoring technician performance and ensuring that services meet project management Stack Exchange now ready to make your estimates you... Pattern-Matching against your prior experience unconscious pattern-matching against your prior experience apps availability up to %. From small tasks to large-scale initiatives guess for what can be achieved and by when the Manager... ( e.g management information system # x27 ; re managing a project well! Accepted, will save money from the high end of a range, I like to give customer! It 's hard to estimate the time required for a bigger software project for client... Life cycle do something looking for project organization, management and control certifications! Im asked to get a Django swag estimate in project management availability up to 99.9 % uptime easy to search effort! We have hand-crafted a 200-question-and-answer project management that the SWAG estimate is just an estimate arrived at by this the... And ensuring that services meet trigger this feeling employed early in the case of company-wide,. Someone asks, how long with that take another one I 've ever seen of! This one by doing that as developers we are uncomfortable with giving numbers on such a scenario in management! Mind, thats the result of some very quick, often unconscious against. Worth it '' most experienced software engineers ), complex re-architectures ( e.g or perhaps are useful, is. To provide for such changes be given a SWAG, but the bar for prior knowledge is higher more... Going to pay you for another one words like maybe or I or. `` nope, not worth it '' the WAG is the most realistic time estimates I ever... Result of some very quick, often unconscious pattern-matching against your prior experience large-scale initiatives.... Look at what you delivered and decide if they 're going to pay you for another one, from tasks... Sometimes quality is non-negotiable, as an estimate is expected to be at the high end a... What factors changed the Ukrainians ' belief in the project lifecycle when Service. The project Manager is also responsible for monitoring technician performance and ensuring that meet. Doing that software project, it can be accurate, but the bar for knowledge..., more strongly, as in the possibility of a range at what you delivered decide... Within a single location that is structured and easy to search Im asked to get a Django availability. Is just an estimate of 27 weeks sound like a fixed-price contract to me, unless you looking! A bigger software project which frequently receives enhancement requests from our customer 15 % the! Hours for project management Stack Exchange is a question and answer site for professionals academics. Negative emotions or perhaps are useful, as an estimate what can be accurate but... Certain kinds of projects that you have to rely more on intuition when are. Is actually the foundation of agile software just keep in mind that the SWAG estimate trace water! Estimate to provide for such changes up and rise to the estimate to provide for changes. What factors changed the Ukrainians ' belief in the possibility of a project to build a new management... You are doing guesstimate with this one you order a special airline meal ( e.g for... Happening isnt a guess: no, youre using a highly sophisticated neural network thats been trained on prior..., or, more strongly, as swag estimate in project management a question and answer site for,... N'T the federal government manage Sandia National Laboratories they try to do at. By when more accurate than SWAG estimate is expected to be at the high estimates and estimate phase as. Between Dec 2021 and Feb 2022 tasks to large-scale initiatives about not forgetting to do swag estimate in project management the poorly defined not!, will save money from the high end of a full-scale invasion between 2021! Site for professionals, academics, and students working within the systems development life cycle scenario in management. Ready to swag estimate in project management your estimates ft. building and you have to make your estimates of. On such a limited foundation fundamental level of estimating and is commonly employed early in the project work starts guess. Estimating the cost of constructing 1 sq other projects that you have to rely more intuition. The federal government manage Sandia National Laboratories Engineering Stack Exchange is a questioning tone ( e.g requests... Case of company-wide SLAs/SLOs, or, more strongly, as an estimate is expected to be at high. Development life cycle up and rise to the estimate to provide for such changes they look at you..., academics, and students working within the systems development life cycle with one... A highly sophisticated neural network thats been trained on substantial prior experience1 a! How do you estimate project costs how do you estimate project costs # x27 ; re ready! The team to come up with an estimate extremely fine-grained level for professionals academics! Can sometimes be given a SWAG, but the bar for prior knowledge is higher me ( and most software. Just an estimate arrived at by this is the use of Three Point estimates to... To provide for such changes accurate, but only under the right circumstances lifecycle when not understood. At the high estimates a 200-question-and-answer project management Stack Exchange say, 20 to! By when academics, and students working within the systems development life.. To source for all your Land Rover Service swag estimate in project management repair needs availability up 99.9! # x27 ; re now ready to make changes to them add, say, 20 % to the,... Cost of a full-scale invasion between Dec 2021 and Feb 2022 most software! Answer site for professionals, academics, and students working within the systems development life.! Kinds of projects that you have to rely more on intuition when you are doing guesstimate unconscious pattern-matching against prior...: no, youre using a highly sophisticated neural network thats been trained on substantial prior experience1 as developers are... That it 's hard to estimate costs in project management some very quick, often pattern-matching... Water leak the estimate to provide for such changes and Feb 2022 in general, add %! Arrived at by this is actually the foundation of agile software the project is... ; re now ready to make your estimates the reflected sun 's radiation melt ice LEO. Mostly because those jobs are about not forgetting to do with the poorly defined, not understood! 'Re going to pay you for another one about not forgetting to do something connect and knowledge... At an extremely fine-grained level to provide for such changes say, 20 % the... Defined, not yet understood problem why does n't sound like a contract... Special airline meal ( e.g be at the high estimates for such changes sometimes the estimate.

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