I agree with you, Chris. Perhaps its the utter lack of any regulation that baffles me, because blockchain I do kinda get, which is why I did put some money into IBM (yes, very un-Mustachian) after reading about their auto-encryption developments and its applicability in protecting personal info and consumer data. When I hear people taking on debt to invest in Bitcoin, I lose a little faith in humanity. Sun, these guys are just parroting stuff the banks put out, to suit their points. Also make a calculation of how much electricity, trees and other expenses the Fiat Currencies printed on toilet paper consume as well! People speculating in this mania are in their 20s and werent there in 1999. You could recreate your AAPL stocks again if you want and still keep the rest in GBTC? The only reason you would be staying in is that you would hopefully still be able to find a bigger sucker when you finally do unload. My friend who has a Masters in Computer Science inquired with me about investing in Bitcoin before Christmas and I told her essentially what I thought as mania. Its a little like taking out the garbage. January 2, 2018, 6:09 pm. January 19, 2018, 6:45 pm. THIS is a form of trust derived worth. People suffer immensely. Just like gold, tulip bulbs, Beanie Babies, 1999 dotcoms without any hope of a product plan, pre-construction pricing Toronto condominiums you have no intent to occupy or rent out, and rare baseball cards are not investments. We plan to spice up our investments then, we will have $90K/yr extra to invest and wont mind taking maybe 10% of that and play/gamble with it :-). Satoshi, the founder, sits on 10% but he has never spent a single cent. Profit! Adney's first tip is to change how you look at the prices of what you buy. You cannot have blockchain without bitcoin. They always do. Like a piece of a profitable business or a rentable piece of real estate. (Update from late 2018 Mike ended up being wayyyy wrong.). Seems to Petes point, theres an awful lot of marketing push behind something that has dubious use cases and limited long term value. !, What is money? United States . Like. Im not saying Bitcoin is the saviour of USD imperialism. Perhaps the reason this was not mentioned, is that you do not value the decentralized aspect of blockchain technology and are happy with a trusted third party (government) setup. Higher energy usage in China means that the nasty, killing coal plants stay online longer. Tulips anyone? There is already ways to pay and use your crypto currencies and companies like request.network are working on ways facilitate swapping with cryptos and fiat using oracles and smart contracts on the ethereum network. Do you also believe that you have a prayer of creating an internationally recognized currency that simply skips out on national and international financial accounting laws? It has been made ground up to be censorship resistant and has been thriving for past 8 years despite singular opposition from every quarter. You guys may enjoy this article about Peter Thiel: https://www.wsj.com/articles/peter-thiels-founders-fund-makes-big-bet-on-bitcoin-1514917433. Me, I am willing to speculate some, not on bitcoin as a currency, but on an bitcoin as an idea about the future. But its likely just down the toilet. Latest being the retail apocalypse. Ive been wondering this too. Research further. Take the decentralization, the trustlessness, the miners or the currency out and you throw the immutability out. Warren Buffet says dont invest in what you dont understand, and I dont understand Bitcoin. Darn things didnt even pace with inflation. So we need more credible people to speak out against it. > There is a high chance that Bitcoin doesnt remain #1 forever because there are so many cryptocurrencies, many of which with very different applications, including some that arent even based on blockchain technology. Apparently, Amazon pays people in other countries with Amazon gift cards. Well, that is not what we are discussing are we? Bitcoin has very little usage. 1. Trust IS the value of Bitcoin. Why would anyone do business with a medium of exchange that is accountable to nobody? Update, three years later: Since I wrote this, the imaginary price of Bitcoin has continued to be all over the map it initially dropped over 70%, then it went back up many hundreds of percent, over and over. And there are so many investors who buy Bitcoin without even understanding what Blockchain iswhich is just scary. For newer cryptocurrencies, there may be a higher dollars-per-kilowatt-hour return, but I dont know these numbers myself. And to your last point Lightning network will be cheaper? If you were setting up your portfolio from scratch today, would you buy $500K of GBTC with it? Vijay, its okay. I agree totally. For fun, I try to gauge how bad is the Fear of missing out is and how that corresponds to a peak. Amazon has a stated strategy of no profithow does one price that? Mr. Money Mustache @mrmoneymustache Follow @mrmoneymustache There's nothing wrong with blockchain technology - as I said in the article. OK Vijay but then why do you and others get so angry when some of us say we dont want to invest in it? I think your point about time wasted is very accurate. January 3, 2018, 12:26 pm. It remains to be seen. I also remember that bubble..sure a lot of things moved to the internet but it had to crash..hard first. =. Hardware. MissSaraBee MentalArson I was thinking that the primary beneficiaries of the current bubble are likely the drug dealers, money launderers, and other criminals that hold bitcoin for actual business transactions. While were on the topic of bubbles, it seems the truly gigantic bubble in the world isnt bitcoin, but rather the global debt market. Mr Money Mustache 26-02-2023 Hobbyen. But thats just the software side (Blockchain). Some guy on the internet It seems to me that whats needed here on both sides is touch of humility. This is not going to happen. You made an unsupported claim. Retweet. Im not advocating throwing all your money into crypto (I havent see anyone say that). (namely, cultural values and living conditions which have been shown through study to increase our subjective wellbeing scores, or Science if you want a shorthand for it). If you MUST put way too much money in bitcoins, you need your own offline, hardware wallet. But this is not necessarily correct in every case. MMM could have just posted a video like this where a not-famous-youtuber is boasting about how he is going to start investing 3% of everything he makes into Bitcoin for his nest egg because he missed out when he first opened his Bitcoin wallet 4 or 5 years ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ubnMyPZS86E. Well thats all due to the crypto currency craze. This is what is known as " The 4% Rule ". Theyre not very good experts. January 2, 2018, 7:25 pm. Lady Dividend It isnt enough to live off of, but its definitely nice to have a net $500 or so in my pocket at the end of each month. Pretty much. Mr. Butler The Bitcoin Faithful also mock me for considering all cryptocurrencies (current and future) as candidates for eventual dominance in transactions, rather than just assuming it would be BTC. It is too inefficient to scale to become a global currency, too volatile to be practical as a global currency, and there is a cap to how many bitcoins can be made therefore no reason to ever spend your bitcoin. January 2, 2018, 6:01 pm. Yes, you can hedge in other things, but gold is fungible, dividable, small enough to hide, and has been valuable for centuries. People get excited about Bitcoin when the price goes up, but thats because they like making money not because the underlying object has any actual value or usefulness. Guys. But if all gold ever did was look pretty as jewelry and increase human races chances of successfully reproducing due to its function as a romantic signaling device that encourages saving, commitment and mindfulness, that would be enough to give it some real lasting valueand probably at a fairly high unit price based on how hard it is to make more of it. Or streaming music, and streaming movies! Please please please get out of that fund and invest it all in a low fee index fund! I dont think Bitcoin will be very snuggly. Except for ripple coin. Mr. Money Mustache Early Retirement through Badassity Start Here About Random MMM Recommends Forum MMM Classics Mr. Money Mustache View: Fancy Magazine | Classic Blog Welcome New Readers! Bitcoin was the first block chain, and this guy Satoshi whoever he is, has invented something that is as big as what Einstein did in the 20th century with Atomic Physics. Let them hold on to their fiat currency if they like to. There are other points that I cant think of right now. He or she still determines the current market price. ;). Mark states he has done this study with no references to any data as to how he arrived at such a conclusion. I have seen several bubbles grow and then burst, and one thing you learn is that an actual bubble rises like crazy and then totally pops. January 3, 2018, 7:59 am. January 3, 2018, 12:30 pm, but fail to recognize that the USD also has no intrinsic value. The comment about 1999 investors didnt receive their investment back from stocks until this year well, for the rest of us that dont invest 100% of our money in the stock market in one instance AND we reinvest dividends, this type of situation is almost impossible. With all due respect, your statement comes across as rather authoritarian! Its very informative and answers many questions you raise, 2. Are you for real? @RK So If Jihan wakes up on the wrong side of the bed and decides to dump all his coins then it will open up hell hole for every one else. Talk of being blissfully ignorant! You could grow more bulbs indefinitely. This is to be expected for a revolutionary new technology. Shit. Blockchain isnt just a software protocol, the algorithm guiding it doesnt have to be open source, some cryptoassets pay the miners for securing the network through concepts such as proof of stake and delegated byzantine fault tolerance, some networks support decentralized applications with actual potential and have intrinsic value. I just dont understand the new economy. Regulation by SECI doubt theres any way to know the innovation that has been stifled, the small companies which never existed, the middle class growing local investment missed, because theres no cheap seat at the table. This is the same exact dynamic as tulip bulbs: Do tulip bulbs have a value? Bitcoin has a deflationary nature, its only logical to pay you in $100 non-bitcoin bucks that are racing with the inflation rate of the Feds printing machine instead. Yeah we could all gamble our way to FIRE, this week bitcoin, next week slot machines, poker, etc. We cannot have better living conditions for half of humanity on this planet under a corrupt and manipulative central banking system of various countries, that are not even true democracies. This is exactly the same I have a dream. Thats a really bad equivocation. Those Adults you referred to in your article had the trust and lost it with their actions. . I totally agree. Good points? So every time I say Bitcoin/altcoins are a stupid idea, I chuckle. Don't look at prices, look at relative prices. Thank you! Looks like I made a big mistake then. Or physical goods if you want to use it to record land or vehicle deeds, etc. And this, MMM There are no financial instruments that will protect you from a world where we no longer trust each other. 2 years later, and each coin is 28,736.04 or $39,388.47. The big players in China use hydroelectric power. That said, I guess ridiculous speculation has been around for ages this is just the latest flavor. The main reason is Kenya has a mobile money system which allows you to use phone credit to pay for stuff or even just your own money. If I am able to speculate successfully and retire sooner, I would hope that the other Mustachians would cheer me on. Hmmm..why not pay in bitcoins if it is so superior? They always do.. If you're careful to invest in an altcoin that has a clear value proposition (ripple comes to mind) you can set it and check once a day at most. Your comment is timestamped January 7, 2018. That is an implied 2% or so long-term return, and probably a negative one after inflation. Its funny reading your article because while Im a true believer in bitcoin as the internet of money, I feel pretty much the same way as you do about 99% of the rest of crypto. Because I still cant pay for groceries in my town without swiping a card or handing over some US dollars. Making government efficient and effective for the people is noble as well. Maybe the currencies will be useful to, but the really useful ones will be the ones designed for some purpose. MentalArson People want Bitcoin to grow exponentially and be stable at the same time! I say its value is nil. Once you make this separation in your mind, you can see that Blockchain is a simply a nifty new software invention (which is open-source and free for anyone to use), whereas Bitcoin is just one well-known way to use it. You are attempting to speak truth to disillusioned citizens, you will face resistance. Dont you find it strange, though, that my grandfather used what you call toilet paper to buy his first car, and his first house? Scott, I think you may have that backwards: You mean that Bond *yields* werent historically low back then like they are now, right? Even though it really is nothing but cyber reality. Would yours? Its odd he believes people require a government to establish a system of trust and cooperation. Do you really see that happening? Second: Human nature actually tolerates a *lot* of corruption in exchange to stability, so I dont think well be switching over to this science fair project any time soon. Hopefully someone else will go through this in 2023 and fill us in on the value then. Theres nothing fraudulent about Bitcoin its mass hysteria driving demand. Time will tell. Just like we could end the climate castrophie in a couple years if everyone decided it was a priority and started working together to fix it, we can end milennia of war and economic oppression in just a decade or two, if we take back control of our money. Lets take the oil price in the middle of the last decade as an example of a real bubble. Look at Cardano for example, they are building blockchain with built in treasury and KYC/AML endpoints. You are a dumb man TomTX! Its the last one! 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